While Chevrolet has dominated the field in NASCAR for much of this century, winning 16 Manufacturer’s championships in 23 years in the Cup Series, including the past two and 13 in a row between 2003 and 2015, we could see a shakeup this season with Toyota driver Martin Truex Jr. leading the field roughly halfway through the season, and Toyota (563 points, good for second place) hot on Chevrolet’s tail (602 points).
While Truex leads the field, bookies and oddsmakers still see the Chevy drivers as favorites to overtake him, listing Kyle Larson (at or around +500 on various Kansas betting apps) as the favorite to win the second Cup Championship of his career.
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While Toyota is firmly in the hunt right now, aided by Truex’s win at the Toyota Save Mart 350 in California two Sundays ago, their drivers have been lagging behind as of late: it was a red hot stretch across late April and early May that put them in the position they’re in. That run, capped right here in the Sunflower State by fellow Toyota driver Denny Hamlin’s win at the Kansas Speedway in the AdventHealth 400, helped vault Toyota to the top of the standings.
Hamlin’s win could be an excellent example of foreshadowing, as he stole victory from the jaws of defeat on the last lap of the race. He drew neck and neck with Larson during the final five laps, finally surpassing him at the last possible second when Larson skirted too close to the wall. Toyota, much like it’s drivers, is hanging right on Chevrolet’s tail, waiting for the right moment to strike and overtake the Cup Series’ premier brand.
The good news for Toyota and their drivers is that the Cup Series is set to return to the Kansas Speedway on Sunday, September 10 in the Hollywood Casino 400: if Hamlin or one of the other drivers is able to double down on the strike of good fortune, it could spark a furious push entering the final two months of the season, keying their fourth Manufacturers championship in the Cup Series (and first since 2019).
Hamlin’s win at the AdventHealth 400 marked his third career championship there, and Toyota’s fourth in a row: it’s clear the manufacturer has an affinity for the 1.5 mile course.
Toyota is the reigning champion in the Hollywood Casino 400 as well, with Bubba Wallace climbing atop the podium last September: Truex and Hamlin each have one victory apiece there.
The stakes will be much higher as summer winds down, as the latter race marks the second event of the Cup Series playoffs in the middle of the Round of 16. If the current standings were to hold (which, of course, they won’t) Toyota would send five drivers to the playoffs: Truex (No. 1), Christopher Bell (No. 7), Hamlin (No. 8), Tyler Reddick (No. 13) and Wallace (No. 15): while Chevrolet dominates the top of the leaderboard (as does Ford, to a lesser extent), Toyota’s drivers do a nice job of rounding out the field, and anything can happen as the pressure of contending for a championship ramps up.
Wallace’s outstanding performance in last year’s Hollywood Casino 400, where he took the lead with 67 laps to go and didn’t look back, maintaining his lead until he crossed the finish line despite a strong push by Hamlin. Bell came in third in that race, so Toyota has dominated from top to bottom at the Kansas Speedway.
